Predictions for 2010 by Top Headhunters

future   Paul Hammond, managing partner, Hammond Partners

 • There WILL be consequences from the supertax and the new higher rate of income tax. Increasingly, top people in global banks will be asking whether they can relocate. Could lead to a long term shift in emphasis to Asia/HK/Singapore.

 • There will be increasing upward pressure on base salaries.

 • Banks will have to think carefully about what they do to retain the very best performers, beyond just cash or near cash compensation.

  Adrian Ezra, chief executive, Execuzen

  • Banks will make a lot more effort to retain existing staff this year – expect a lot of buybacks

 • There will be more team moves as hirers look to bring in “complete solutions.”

 • There will be greater emphasis on staffing local European offices in countries like Italy and Switzerland.

 Ken Brotherston, chief executive, Kinsey Allen International

 • There will be significant demand for regulatory risk skills, especially in the light of a potential change in government and its impact on the tripartite regulatory regime.

 • There will be focused build-outs of selected areas to ensure genuine global coverage. Capital markets hiring activity is already well underway – expect to see much increased activity in investment banking/M&A hiring. Geographically, Asia will be especially active.

 • There will be further changes to the compensation structures of major investment banks as the recent changes have been rushed through.

  David Reynolds, managing director Scott Reynolds

 • There will be a lot of movement in the rates business if bonus expectations for 2009 aren’t met.

 • Last year’s big story was BarCap’s equities build out, this year expect to see more hiring at Morgan Stanley and Merrill BofA as it seeks to rebuild a fixed income business.

 • Rising bank share prices will tie people in and make it increasingly difficult and costly to move senior staff in 2010.

 Michael Karp, chief executive, Options Group

 • Investment banking and M&A in particular will be a major growth area.

 • Electronic trading will be at the forefront of equities growth. As markets develop globally and exchanges go electronic, all major financial institutions and investors will look to acquire talent in this field. Technology will play a key role and banks will look for innovative technologist’s to develop their electronic strategies. Hedge funds are getting into the high frequency business as well and as they bid up talent competition in 2010 will increase massively for people with these skills.

 • Emerging markets will be a focus for all major financial institutions. EM is a growth opportunity for all and we expect that there will be a free for all in this sector. We have seen massive increasing in hiring in BRIC countries and are seeing hedge funds position in these markets as well. Besides the BRIC countries we see countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea scoring very well in 2010.

 Guy Roberts, chief executive, Pelham Search International

 • Equity derivatives has been significantly downsized over the past eighteen months and at some point will need to be rebuilt.

 • Banks will continue upgrading and expanding across all other areas.

 * Experienced and connected Chinese bankers will remain in strong demand across private banking and corporate finance roles.


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